The new study modifies previous predictions and gives more time to act to avoid a “dangerous” level of global warming. “What this paper means is that keeping warming to 1.5 degrees C still remains a geophysical possibility, contrary to quite widespread belief,” Millar said.
Global warming map
Any substantial revision to the carbon budget would have major implications, changing our ideas of how rapidly countries will need to ratchet down their greenhouse gas emissions in coming years and, thus, the very workings of global climate policymaking. But are the new perspective correct ? Outside researchers raised questions about the work.. Limiting the Earth’s warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures was the most ambitious goal cited in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. In 2013, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calculated that humanity could emit about 1,000 more gigatons, or billion tons, of carbon dioxide from 2011 onward. We currently emit about 41 billion tons per year, so every three years, more than 100 billion tons are gone. The new finds that we have more than 700 billion tons left to emit to keep warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius. “That’s about 20 years at present-day emissions,” Millar said at the news briefing.